The World Bank points out "Thailand" is the highest negative in ASEAN

The World Bank expects the Thai economy to be negative 8.3% this year, the most negative in ASEAN. From the impact of Covid-19 The worst case scenario could be as negative as 10.4%, while the East Asia and Pacific economies are expected to gain 0.9%, the lowest in 53 years, suggesting Covid-19 is causing the poor, new and old. It is estimated that the world's poor are at 38 million.

Journalists reported that the World Bank released its "From Containment to Recovery" report, the October 2020 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (EAP), stating that domestic economic activity is recovering in some countries. That can control the spread of Covid-19.

However, economies in the region still rely heavily on the rest of the world. And global demand is still low. It predicts that growth for the region will be only 0.9 percent in 2020, the lowest growth rate since 1967 or in 53 years, with China forecast to grow. 2.0% due to the increase in public investment At the same time, China has been able to maintain low levels of new infections since months. Mar. ago

For other countries in the EAP region, the World Bank expects The economy will contract 3.5% altogether. However, opportunities will look brighter in 2021, with China projected 7.9% growth next year. The region's growth is 5.1%. However, over the next two years, output is expected to remain below the pre-epidemic forecast. The economic outlook is very bad. In particular, countries in the Pacific Islands. It is expected that through 2021 yields will remain approximately 10% lower than pre-crisis levels.

The report also noted that Covid-19 has caused panic in three areas of the EAP's developing countries: 1. The epidemic itself. Affecting the economy from epidemic control measures And the long slump of the global economy In the first half of this year, China experienced a 1.8% decline and the rest of the region fell 4% on average. However, it seems that the tourism industry has not recovered any time soon. Although short-term capital has flowed back into the region, global uncertainties continue to hinder domestic and foreign investment. The ability of the government to stimulate the economy

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Poverty in the region is likely to rise for the first time in 20 years, with 38 million expected to remain in poverty. Or having to return to poverty resulting from the epidemic (Based on the middle-high income poverty line of $ 5.50 per day)

Victoria Kwaqua, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and the Pacific said, Covid-19 not only hits the poor most severely, but it also affects the poor. But also created a new group of poor people. The report warns that if there is no action to respond in various ways. The epidemic could reduce the region's growth over the next decade or 10 years to 1% per year, which affects the poorest households.

For forecasting the economy of the ASEAN region Or Southeast Asia The World Bank expects Thailand's GDP this year to grow to negative 8.3%, while in the worst-case scenario it is negative 10.4%. Thailand, in the worst case, expects 3.5% growth.

The baseline case is expected to expand 4.9%, with Thailand having the highest negative growth rate in ASEAN this year. Indonesia is forecast to drop 1.6% this year, Malaysia down 4.9%, Philippines negative 6.9%, Cambodia negative 2%, Laos negative 0.6%. The World Bank predicts Vietnam will continue to gain positive growth this year. With an increase of 2.8%, similar to that of Myanmar The World Bank estimates it will expand 0.5% this year.

For the forecasts of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) recently revised its forecast for the 63 economy to negative 7.8% from the previous forecast of negative 8.1%, while the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) predicts the Thai economy. Will be negative 8.5%.