5 years of intervention in Syria, Russia has changed the game in the Middle East

Five years ago, Russia began to interfere in the conflict in Syria, causing the situation on the ground to change dramatically and ending the spread of Islamic terrorism in the country. Middle East expert Ghassan Kadi and Syrian journalist Basma Qaddour looked back at the achievements and plans of a Russian-Syrian strategic partnership, according to Sputnik news agency.

On September 30, 2015, Russia began an air campaign against the Islamic State in Syria at the request of military assistance from Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

“We all know that thousands of people from Europe, Russia and the post-Soviet region have joined IS, a terrorist organization that - I want to emphasize again - is unrelated to true Islam. "- Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a special summit on September 30, 2015.

"It does not have to be an expert to realize that if they succeed in Syria they will definitely return to their country, including Russia," - Putin said at that time.

Russian intervention helps change the game

Russia's military intervention has been the turning point for Syria, which has been in conflict since 2011. As shown in a declassified U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) document in 2012 , the main forces driving the rebellion in Syria are the Muslim Salafist group, the Muslim Brotherhood and the al-Qaeda organization in Iraq. These groups supported the Syrian opposition from the very beginning both in terms of ideology and media.

At that time, the US and the European Union (EU) signaled sympathy for the so-called "moderate" Syrian opposition and demanded that Mr. al-Assad resign.

In September 2014, the US military intervened in Syria under the pretext of anti-ISIS. The US military leads a coalition of countries inside and outside the region, including forces from Britain, France, Jordan, Turkey, Canada, and Australia and provides support to the Syrian rebels and the Citizen. The Syrian owner (SDF) is led by the Kurds.

In addition to the US-led international coalition, hundreds of thousands of fighters from Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq have moved to Syria, said Ghassan Kadi, a Middle East expert and Syrian-born political analyst.

“They are fully armed and well trained. Without using air power, the elimination of these forces will be a very difficult task ”- Mr. Kadi emphasized.

By September 2015, terrorist groups were very close to the Syrian capital of Damascus, where there are only 2-3 weeks left to fall into the hands of terrorist groups, said Basma Qaddour - Syrian journalist and chief head of news department at The Syria Times newspaper said.

According to observers, the military move of Russia on September 30, 2015 is considered a "big turning point".

“The greatest role that Russia plays militarily is the use of air power and expertise in how to fight in dense urban environments. This creates a balance of power against the invaders and is beneficial for the Syrian army "- Mr. Kadi noted.

What are the goals of the Russian-Syrian alliance?

By December 2017, the Russian-Syrian alliance has destroyed 60,318 terrorist fighters, including 819 terrorist leaders as well as liberated 1,024 settlements, most notably the strategic cities of Aleppo, Palmyra, Akerbat, Deir ez-Zor, Meyadin and Abu Kemal.

With the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Syrian Arab Army destroyed the major IS strongholds except for Idlib province in the northwestern country that is still in the hands of the rebels.

Thus, Russia's military presence in Syria and the success of the air counterterrorism campaign have put aside any future all-out NATO offensive, Kadi said. concentration.

In December 2017, President Putin announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria for successfully completing the mission against ISIS. However, Moscow continues to provide support to Syria. Overall, the Russian-Syrian alliance destroyed more than 133,000 terrorists, the Damascus government controlled 88% of the country's territory.

In parallel with its military efforts, Russia, along with Iran and Turkey, arranged talks between the Syrian government delegation and the opposition force in Astana (Kazakhstan) at the end of December 2016.

In the following years, negotiations in the Astana format led by Moscow, Tehran and Ankara helped reduce the severity of the clashes by signing a truce and establishing four conflict reduction zones. in Syria.

"Here, we can point out the fact that the Astana negotiations aimed at a postwar Syrian order as an effective alternative to similar UN (UN) efforts" - Mr. Qaddour emphasized, referring to the Geneva talks on the Syrian situation held from June 2012 under the auspices of the UN.

Obstacles on the way to restore peace and order

However, the peace process has largely been hampered by the military presence of the US and Turkey in the region, Ms. Qaddour pointed out. He stressed that these foreign forces must withdraw their troops from Syria.

Referring to the issue of the US-SDF military base in the region, this journalist said that the Syrian resistance forces have the ability to knock them out of these areas. In August 2020, the Syrian tribal leaders in Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo asked the US and the Kurds to withdraw from the area.

“The problem is that the US-backed SDF in eastern Syria now controls about 70% of Syria's national oil resources and many valuable gas facilities. East Euphrates is under the control of the US occupation forces and SDF ”- Ms. Qaddour said.

Besides, Ms. Qaddour pointed out that Idlib province (northwest Syria) is still in the hands of terrorist groups. She stressed that about 85% of the terrorists in Idlib were related to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (HTS).

Mr. Kadi also expressed similar concerns: "In addition to the non-Syrian fighters who were killed or fled, the remaining real Syrian fighters are in Idlib, hence any peace talks. Any award will have to wait until this area is completely controlled by the Syrian government "- Mr. Kadi emphasized.

Turkey, which monitors the Idlib conflict reduction zone, has declared separating the peaceful opposition from the terrorists, liberating the M4 highway and establishing a security corridor around the highway. According to Moscow and Ankara, these deals are slowly being implemented.

Russia will help Syria restore its post-war economy

Mr. Kadi pointed out that the big problem to be solved now is the Syrian economy , citing the Syrian oil problem and the US Caesar Act that is choking Syria.

“The Western-centric order makes it nearly impossible for countries to transact and interact without depending on the dollar, the Internet, and the SWIFT banking system. Any country that receives Western sanctions is at risk of isolation, ”said the Middle East expert.

In light of that situation, Damascus is expanding business relations with Russia to facilitate economic recovery. During his visit to Syria, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said that Moscow submitted an economic proposal package to Syria in July to handle the post-war crisis and US sanctions. It is expected that these proposals will be finalized in December 2020.

Economic difficulties and Western pressures have caused countries in the region, most notably Syria and Iran, to form new alliances and economic partners, Kadi noted.

According to Kadi, the US sanctions policy is bound to fail when the West is no longer the center of production for even advanced goods. In the near future countries like Russia, China, Iran and Syria, in theory, will, in theory, be able to provide each other with all their basic needs without having to use each other. to Western imports.

The Syrian conflict and subsequent events once again prove that the days of the post-cold war Western-centered world order are no longer there, Ms. Qaddour said.

“The United States pushes on an anti-world agenda so as not to face the difficult reality that America is no longer the world's only superpower and it has to adapt to an increasingly multipolar world. "- Ms. Qaddour concluded.